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EURUSD 1-Hour timeframe
EUR/USD on an hourly timeframe had an eventful week with a few 120+ pip market-moving breakouts and another one potentially on the cards. EUR/USD moved sideways in anticipation of the Non-Farm Payroll figures, which came in much higher than anticipated, causing US Dollar buyers to drive EUR/USD down a massive 170 pips within a few hours.
From there, the market was sideways until the next big release, the US Core CPI. These figures came in lower than expected, causing some Dollar weakness with a nice 80 pip move to the upside.
Currently, the market is again in a tight 20 pip range, confirming that investors are probably anxiously waiting for the upcoming Jobless Claims print at 12:30 server time. This could spark a potential breakout due to the Fed's sensitivity towards labor market figures.
Technically, the market is trading close to the notorious 1.08000 support level. Depending on the figures, if the market breaks out of this level to the downside, we might see continued momentum towards the 1.0770 level or even the 1.0730 level. Traditionally, if the jobless claims are lower than expected, it indicates a stronger labor market. This could lead to a more hawkish stance from the Fed (i.e., higher interest rates or less delay in hikes), strengthening the US Dollar and driving EUR/USD prices lower.
However, if the jobless figures print higher than expected and it is coupled with a decisive breakout to the upside, we might see prices soaring to the 1.0850 and even as far as the 1.0880 levels.
It remains to be seen if the fundamental drivers will be coupled with decisive price action confirmation.
Summary
- EUR/USD experienced significant volatility with multiple 120+ pip breakouts this week.
- The Non-Farm Payroll figures were much higher than expected, driving EUR/USD down 170 pips.
- Lower-than-expected US Core CPI caused an 80 pip move to the upside.
- Currently, the market is in a tight 20 pip range ahead of Jobless Claims.
- Investors are watching the critical 1.08000 support level for potential breakouts.
- Jobless Claims could lead to decisive price action, impacting EUR/USD significantly.